Reporting for Lunar New Year!
It seems to be reports season in here this week!
Xīn Nián Kuài Lè! / Gōng Xǐ Fā Cái/ Kung Hey Fat Choi!
A Happy New Year to all celebrating, or those basking in the glow of festivities & family love around them!
The Colour Bar is where creativity, content, culture, tech, brands & humanity collide.
It seems to be reports season in here this week!
There is decided move in TV (streaming et al) to what some are starting to call ‘Mid-TV’, as opposed to the blazing times of PeaK TV. Premium series, all the rage, are ceding ground again to more massy fare. This ought also to mean longer seasons, indeed more seasons, more bang for buck. We have been hearing about a significant contraction in TV production in the U.S. (and slowdowns elsewhere).
Much of this is reiterated, questioned and prodded in Luminate's 2024 Year-End Film & TV Report- an overview focusing on the volume of TV and film content, streaming viewership, and consumer behaviour. I dive into it in this dispatch.
I have been thinking a lot recently of how we consume news, who we choose to get it from, the fundamental issue of trust, and ‘new age/independent/solo’ journalists versus established institutions. Some of these come up when we look at the perspectives on journalism’s future offered in the Reuter’s Institute Report on 2025. I unwrap it here.
Then there some insight on the Youtube algorithm, interesting for both viewers and creators. + quickies from astrology, Roblox bus driving and an Elton John- Paul McCartney combo.
In the middle of it all, Curated/Cuts feature a Lunar New Year feast, a one handed snack and chocolate sans equality.
That’s the Colour Bar this week- dive in!
The News About News
2024 is hardly the year news was disrupted, nor is 2025 the year where it will be magically reinvented. The morphing / evolution / shape-shifting in the news space has been underway for some time now. But a report like Reuter’s recent*, “Journalism and Technology Trends and Predictions 2025”* asks us to take stock of the profound transformation.
I see mainstream news has two major aspects- trust has been plummeting, and/or it has been steadily aligning with corporate & political interests (both at varying stages in different geographies). Is there a connection between the two? Go figure. Either way, each aspect is both important, and powerful. And AI will exacerbate the dynamics.
The numbers from the report inevitably offer a complex story. There appears to be a tension between business optimism and journalistic anxiety- 56% of news executives feel confident about their business prospects, yet only 41% are optimistic about journalism's future! This disconnect is telling.
It also speaks to deeper questions about navigating truth in an AI-accelerated world. The AI paradox too, seems inevitable:
87% of newsrooms report being transformed by generative AI
Over 70% are exploring both AI-powered audio versions of articles and offering summaries
Almost four in ten commercial publishers expect licensing income from tech/AI companies to be a significant revenue stream. And the majority want collective deals.
Yet 74% fear losing search traffic to AI-generated answers
Traditional media is being squeezed from all sides: Musk's "You are the media now" mantra might be symbolic of a broader push to position mainstream journalism as increasingly irrelevant, while platforms like YouTube and TikTok continue to dominate younger audiences consumption of information.
Separately, the rise of personality-driven news continues to challenge institutional voices. On the one hand, individuals can garner more trust; on the other I wonder about long term ability to offer deeply legitimate reporting without some manner of institutional support.
It feels like we're witnessing a technological shift, yes, but also a fundamental reimagining of how society processes truth. Traditional gatekeepers are evolving, individual creators gaining influence- so are we headed toward a more fractured or more nuanced understanding of truth?
Are these questions overstating our point in time? I believe not.
May be worth another post, but this is something I am increasingly asking of people I speak with- how are you deciding which sources to trust?
Curated/Cuts
Cheetos introduces the world’s first font created entirely by a font designer’s ‘Other Hand’! In a move of sheer genius, it has been named The Other Hand Font! More on it here from Chris Bellinger .
Today is the first day of the Chinese/Lunar new year, so lets get some feasting? First off- I don’t dislike stereotypes; I think they exist for a reason (sometimes those reason are appalling, but lets keep that aside shall we?). When used lazily, they are boring or annoying. When used smartly, they can be revelatory. When used in a familiar way, they can be fun.
Now. I sometimes tire of the “Asian aunty” stereotype, only because I have heard/ read/ watched it so often over the years. Many Asian people I know (across geographies) continue to like it though, and there is invariably an affectionate humour attached to it. It is also an Indian stereotype- but that’s for another day. With that, here’s a festive spot from Panda Express in the US, called The Invitation (probably better titled “Have you Eaten Yet?).
I found it amusing and kinda heart-warming. There is (needless to say) some negative reactions around it, but hey, decide for yourself.
· Agency Öpınıonated ECDs Mark Fitzloff & Rob Palmer · Writer Chris Le ·
· Production Anonymous Content · Directed by Max Sherman ·
Fun packaging makes a diff! Oddly shaped chocolates are not new, but this is a great way for Cadbury to use packaging to connect with various consumer profiles. Photo courtesy Rodd Chant
The Luminate Report
Luminate's 2024 Year-End Film & TV Report provides an overview focusing on the volume of TV and film content, streaming viewership, and consumer behaviour. Note it is US only.
TL;DR? There is a significant contraction in TV production in the U.S., with a shift towards broadcast, a decline in cable and lesser streaming output, while Netflix's dominance on streaming continues. There’s underperformance of major franchises, value in long-running series, and the (well documented) value of the horror genre.
I find two general (related) trends of interest.
One, the increasing appeal (need) of longer series; more episodes offering better value to networks & streamers, what some like to call a move away from ‘HBO’ to ‘CBS’. “TV’s financial DNA is built on long-running series- shorter runs and limited series present challenges for studios and producers.“
Two, the overall number of shows being ordered are fewer. This is expected in challenging times for most players, and in combination with the first point.
These seem to be part of the wider move from Peak TV to ‘Mid-TV’; more massy fare, with longer runs and easier watching. There’s still a whole lot of TV out there, but for those who revelled in Peak premium TV, there will be less of that ‘high-brow’ output as we go along.
Two things do not necessarily compute.
Comedy continues to get no love. While comedy has grown to become much more of a local beast globally than before, making exports of US sitcoms harder for global streamers, its still curious that there is no concerted effort to look for the next Friends or Big Bang Theory, or even Scrubs.
Unscripted- it would appear that reality and unscripted have not been able to plug in the gaps as much as some thought they would. (Others might say, “didn’t expect them to”!).
Here's a summary of the key findings:
Streaming & Production:
Genre compositions at streamers tend to be similar- lead with drama content, similar amounts of crime-themed programming, underrepresented in comedy.
Genre volume follows: Drama the least impacted in terms of total hours of programming. Comedy, animated, unscripted have suffered. Comedy episodes down 47% over the last five years, unscripted has dropped by 33% between 2022-24.
Netflix dominance: had seven of the top ten most-watched series in 2024, including Fool Me Once, arguably the biggest show of the year*.*
Franchise underperformance: Several, including Marvel, Star Wars and Lord of the Rings, underperformed. The second season of The Rings of Power was down 60% in total minutes watched compared to S1. I’d hesitate to really call it a ‘franchise’, because it has little to do with the earlier films, including the creators, but yes- big IP is struggling. Star Wars is the biggest mess here.
Licensed titles like Moana often beat out streaming originals.
Limited series see a decline; more buyers are looking for shows that can run multiple years.
Film Trends:
Theatrical uptick: slight increase in number of theatrical films.
Streaming decline: number of streaming-only film debuts decreased.
Horror profit: genre tends to be reliably profitable.
The report uses data from Luminate’s Streaming Viewership (M) tool, which measures streaming consumption, and the quarterly Luminate Insights Entertainment 365 survey, which measures consumer behaviours and preferences related to entertainment. Luminate is described as a leading entertainment data and insights company that compiles information from over 500 verified sources, managing over 20 trillion data points.
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International
What I would very much like to see are similar reports and perspectives on various international markets, especially those with vibrant production industries and audiences. The closest for now is a piece from Deadline, Taking The Temperature Of The International Television Industry. While acknowledging this is a nuanced story, there is just a skim of the surface in select markets. Some nuggets
INDIA India’s TV market is facing a reset after several years of intense spending from the SVoDs. “The Sony-Zee merger didn’t happen, HBO and Peacock didn’t even show up… Then Disney and Jio merged. It’s been quite a couple of years all put together.” However, things are looking more settled in 2025, and producers with market nous sense opportunity.
UK The UK is one of the key originators behind the “Survive ’til ’25” mantra, yet producers we speak with feel that this year won’t be too different from the last in terms of getting shows commissioned amid budget woes.
SOUTH AFRICA Streamer rowbacks hit South Africa hard in 2024 and “a feeling that there is a bit more money around as the sector roots Amazon’s exit firmly in the past.”
SPAIN has been experiencing a production boom over recent years, as streamers seek Spanish-speaking subs through an original content strategy largely being driven out of Madrid.
AUSTRALIA: local broadcasters are facing a battle for the future as digital rivals draw eyeballs away from their shows. Streaming regulation was due to begin last year, but is still not in operation, making global streamers reticent to commit budget (though Netflix’s investment is widely praised).
Understanding YouTube’s Recommendation System
There is a handy little podcast out from Youtube insiders on how the algorithm works, I looked at that one for you.
For viewers:
YouTube’s algorithm is viewer-centric. It “pulls” content tailored to a viewer’s preferences, rather than “pushing” videos out. Metrics like click-through rate and watch time are used, but serve as inputs to predict satisfaction, not end goals. I like the sound of recommendations functioning like “automated word-of-mouth”, learning from the viewing habits of similar users.
Recommendations prioritise relevance and timeliness, possibly resurfacing older videos due to trends, seasons, or viewer habits.
Sometimes we describe it as ‘automating word of mouth’… and by that we mean the system is able to understand what other viewers like you have watched and then based on understanding what they enjoyed and what they didn't it can help.
For Creators:
Satisfaction, measured through feedback like surveys, likes, and dislikes, is key to long-term loyalty. Context also matters- recommendations can adapt to factors like time of day or device type.
Dubbing videos can help maximise reach- creators can dub their most-watched content into key languages to grow global audiences.
Ultimately, creators should embrace the algorithm’s dynamic nature. Obsessing over single metrics is unproductive. Consistently evolving with audiences, staying relevant, and focusing on long-term satisfaction ensures success, even during natural dips in viewership.
Of course, this makes it all sound very clear. In practice, we all have times when we find the algorithm befuddling. As users of Youtube, do you feel like this sounds familiar? Does it makes sense, as if this is how your algorithm works?
Check out the podcast here.
QUICKIES & LINKS
More and more Gen Z are turning to astrology, says this piece from the UK, “(Astrology) provides a much-needed sense of comfort and control in an inherently chaotic world, a theory that something bigger is at work in our lives that we don’t fully understand.” This is not very different from what it has offered humans over the ages, no? Some time back, I had shared a piece on how Youtube is helping astrology come alive in Pakistan.
****A millennial learns to drive a bus in Singapore – on Roblox. Bus enthusiasts in Singapore have designed experiences in Roblox to simulate real-life bus driver training.
Netflix shares hit record highs. After high revenue and subscriber numbers for Q4 (they reported signing on nearly 19 million), investors now value Netflix at over $400 billion. That is more than Walt Disney, Comcast, Fox, and Warner Bros Discovery- combined.
For Prime Video, Beast Games has set a record while becoming its most-watched unscripted series ever in the first 25 days, and second-most show of the year behind Fallout.
Elton John backs Paul McCartney in criticising proposed overhaul to UK copyright system The rock star called copyright ‘the absolute bedrock of artistic prosperity’.
They join the likes of Stephen Fry, Kazuo Ishiguro, Kate Bush, William Boyd, and many of the UK’s most well-known creative voices + the News Media Association, Publishers Association, Writers’ Guild, British Phonographic Industry, Association of Photographers, Motion Picture Association.
Lets finish with what Paul McCartney said earlier:
We’re the people, you’re the government. You’re supposed to protect us. That’s your job. So you know, if you’re putting through a bill, make sure you protect the creative thinkers, the creative artists, or you’re not going to have them.